Prescott, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

629
FXUS65 KFGZ 200507
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1007 PM MST Thu Jun 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Hot and dry conditions expected through the weekend.
Winds increase Thursday with an incoming trough, peaking on
Friday and Saturday before gradually decreasing. Several days of
Near Critical to Critical fire weather concerns through the end
of the week. Precipitation chances gradually increase from the
southeast early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...High pressure continues to meander eastward while
above normal 500 mb heights linger over northern AZ. Temperatures
remain above average today, and an Extreme Heat Warning is in
effect for the Grand Canyon below 4000`. A large general trough
feature is visible off the Pacific coast in mid-level WV imagery.
This is pushing against the ridge and setting up a tighter
pressure gradient over our area. Breezy southwest winds are being
observed today as a result.

The trough becomes situated over the western US on Friday, then
remains relatively stationary through early next week. An upper
level jet streak with this trough will mostly stay to the north of
Arizona, and winds aloft look rather unassuming with this system.
However, model cross-sections indicate that a low-level jet with a
60 kt winds at 600mb will form early Friday morning. This will be an
initial momentum source for strong winds tomorrow, and a Wind
Advisory is in effect for gusts up to 45 mph. Similar strong winds
can be expected on Saturday, then the trough begins to weaken in
intensity allowing the pressure gradient to relax over northern AZ.
Winds stay breezy, but decrease in magnitude each afternoon through
the middle of next week. With a mostly dry airmass remaining in
place, these winds will usher in several days of repeated Near-
Critical to Critical fire weather concerns. A Red Flag Warning has
been issued for Friday and Saturday, see the fire discussion below
for more details.

Tropical moisture will surge northward under the trough-ridge
pattern, however the positioning of the synoptic features will keep
the majority of moisture to our east. Nevertheless, a steady rise in
dewpoints can still be expected each day (not enough to dispel fire
weather concerns), and mentionable precipitation chances begin to
encroach from the southeast next week. Right now there are low
chances for daily showers and thunderstorms over White Mountains
by the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Friday 20/06Z through Saturday 21/06Z...VFR conditions
expected through the period. Winds should remain elevated out of
the S-SW through the overnight period around 10 kts. After 18Z,
gusty SW winds return with sustained speeds between 15-25 kts and
gusts near 40 kts possible.


OUTLOOK...Saturday 21/06Z through Monday 23/06Z...VFR conditions
forecast through the weekend. Southerly winds 10-15 kts through
18Z Saturday, becoming sustained 20-30 kts with gusts near 40 kts
afterwards. By 06Z Sunday, lighter southerly winds return around
10-15 kts. Then, additional breezy winds return by 18Z Sunday
primarily along and north of a KGCN-KFLG-KPAN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Friday...One more day of hot temperatures
with a cooling trend beginning on Friday. Remaining dry with minimum
RH values both days 5-10%. Winds becoming southwest at 15-25 mph
gusting to 35 mph today, strengthening further on Friday to
southwest at 20-30 mph gusting 35-50 mph. Near critical fire weather
conditions today, with critical fire weather conditions on Friday. A
Red Flag Warning is in effect starting Friday morning.

Saturday through Monday...Remaining dry with further cooling
forecast. Minimum RH values 5-15% on Saturday climbing to 10-20% on
Sunday and Monday with the cooler temperatures. Look for southwest
winds at 20-30 mph gusting 35-50 mph on Saturday, diminishing to 15-
20 mph gusting 30-35 mph on Sunday and Monday. The Red Flag Warning
will continue into Saturday evening. Heightened fire weather
conditions will likely continue into Sunday and Monday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 8 AM MST /9 AM MDT/ Friday to 8 PM MST /9
PM MDT/ Saturday for AZZ104>117-139-140.

Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM MST Friday for AZZ006.

Wind Advisory from 8 AM MST /9 AM MDT/ to 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/
Friday for AZZ009>014-039-040.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Lewandowski
AVIATION...Konieczny
FIRE WEATHER...JJ

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff